Missed call text back ROI calculator for plumbing and HVAC shops
A missed call text back ROI calculator comes down to one line: recovered jobs a month times the profit on each job, minus what the service costs. With Reply, the cost is $299 for setup and your first 30 live days, then $199 a month only if you choose (Reply pricing), so the real question is how many recovered jobs a month cover that.
Below is the formula, a log to count your real missed calls, and a table that shows how many jobs it takes at your ticket size and margin.
The formula
- Qualifying missed calls a month. From your own call log (worksheet below).
- Recovered jobs. Qualifying missed calls x share who text back x share of those who book.
- Profit per job. Average ticket x your gross margin.
- Net a month. Recovered jobs x profit per job, minus the monthly cost.
- Break-even. Monthly cost / profit per job = recovered jobs you need each month.
Use profit, not revenue. A $400 ticket is not $400 in your pocket after parts, fuel, and labor. The calculators I checked multiply by the full ticket, which makes almost any tool look like it pays.
Every number on this page is either Reply's published price or an input you fill in. I don't quote industry averages for reply rates or close rates, because they won't match your calls.
Step 1: count your real missed calls
Keep this log for two weeks. Use your phone's recent calls list or your phone provider's call log.
| Date | Time | New number? | Spam or robocall? | Repeat caller? | Already called back and booked? | Counts? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A call counts only if all of these are true:
- It came from a new number.
- It came during your working hours.
- It wasn't spam or a robocall.
- It wasn't the same person calling twice.
- You didn't already call them back and book the job.
Reply skips repeat callers the same way: someone who calls twice within a few minutes, or already got a text in the last 24 hours, doesn't get another one (Reply FAQ). The other rules keep your count honest. A job you already won by calling back isn't one a text would recover.
To turn two weeks into a month, multiply your count by 26 / 12 (about 2.17). That's 52 weeks, split into 12 months, for a two-week sample.
Step 2: fill in your inputs
| Input | Your number | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying missed calls a month | ______ | Step 1 log x 2.17 |
| Share who text back | ______ % | Unknown until you try it. Use a low guess. |
| Share of those who book | ______ % | Your own booking rate on new inbound calls |
| Average ticket | $______ | Your last 3 months of invoices |
| Gross margin | ______ % | Ticket minus parts and direct labor, divided by ticket |
| Monthly cost | $199 | Reply pricing after the first 30 live days |
Step 3: how many recovered jobs cover $199 a month
Recovered jobs needed = $199 / (average ticket x gross margin). The tickets and margins below are example inputs to read across, not benchmarks for any trade. Find the row and column closest to your shop.
| Average ticket | 20% margin | 35% margin | 50% margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 6.6 jobs | 3.8 jobs | 2.7 jobs |
| $250 | 4.0 jobs | 2.3 jobs | 1.6 jobs |
| $400 | 2.5 jobs | 1.4 jobs | 1.0 job |
| $600 | 1.7 jobs | 0.9 jobs | 0.7 jobs |
| $1,000 | 1.0 job | 0.6 jobs | 0.4 jobs |
A number under 1 means one recovered job covers more than a month. At a $600 ticket and 35% margin, one job covers about 1.1 months.
The first 30 live days cost $299, which also covers setup. Divide $299 instead of $199 for that month. At a $400 ticket and 35% margin, that's 2.1 jobs.
A worked example (made-up numbers)
This is example math, not a real shop and not a result.
- The two-week log shows 9 qualifying missed calls. 9 x 26 / 12 = 19.5 a month.
- Guess that 1 in 3 callers texts back, and half of those book. 19.5 x 1/3 x 1/2 = 3.25 recovered jobs.
- Average ticket $350 at 40% margin is $140 profit a job.
- 3.25 x $140 = $455 a month in profit, minus $199 = $256 ahead.
Now change one guess. If only 1 in 10 callers texts back:
- 19.5 x 1/10 x 1/2 = 0.98 recovered jobs.
- 0.98 x $140 = $137 a month, minus $199 = $62 behind.
Same shop, same calls. The answer flips on the reply rate, and you can't know that number until texts go out to your callers. Break-even for this shop is $199 / $140 = 1.4 recovered jobs a month.
What this math leaves out
- Repeat work and referrals. A kept customer may call again. The formula counts the first job only.
- Your time. Reply forwards customer replies to your phone and you handle the conversation, so each recovered job still takes a few texts from you.
- Usage details. Reply's usage and support details are agreed before you start (Reply). Ask about them on the fit call.
- Shops that rarely miss calls. If your log shows only a call or two a month, the math probably won't work, and Reply's own FAQ says it may not be worth paying for.
Run it on your real calls
The guesses in Step 2 are the weak spot of any calculator, including this one. The way to replace them is to send real texts to real callers and count what comes back.
That's how Reply works. $299 covers setup and your first 30 live days. You pay once your number is live and tested, and if I can't get it working on your phone setup, you don't pay. After that, $199/month only if you choose, with no auto-renew (Reply pricing). Each week I send a recap of calls, texts, and customer replies, and at the end we review the results together. That gives you your own reply rate to put back into the formula.
Reply is for plumbing and HVAC shops across Central New Jersey. I'm based in Carteret. It covers one location and one Reply number. It starts with a 15-minute fit call where I check your current tools, your phone setup, and how many calls you miss.
If you want to write the text yourself first, here are 10 missed-call texts for plumbers and HVAC.